David Cowan VC Thoughts

David Cowan has a great post summarizing a presentation he made at Babson College. My take-away:

And so the winning recipe today for aspiring entrepreneurs is GET BIG CHEAP.
Don’t waste expensive development on untested ideas, and don’t let a
fat marketing budget mask a weak value proposition. If instead you
tinker your way to scalable organic growth, you’ll have a valuable
business on your hands. Don’t worry about how long it takes—just make
sure your burn rate is low enough to accommodate several cycles of
iteration.

Pitching to VCs

A classic post by Baris, outlining how he likes to see a company explain its business and funding needs.  He adds a "what the VC is thinking" component to each section, and tops it off by an actual ppt that provides the outline for his model.

He points to the Per Customer Economics, as the most important slide:

Slide 8: PER CUSTOMER ECONOMICS

The most important slide of the whole presentation.  A good answer
here shows how well you’ve thought about your business.  Per user
economics is how VC’s reduce all business to the same units.  How much
does it take for you to acquire a customer?  How much revenue do you
get per customers?  What’s your cost of goods per customer?  What does
it cost you to service each customer?  What is churn?  What is the
lifetime value of a customer and profit per lifetime of the customer?
Any entrepreneur who doesn’t have the answers or see the risks, doesn’t
yet understand his/her business.

What the VC is thinking: "What is a customer worth?"

There are many businesses where the per customer economics is critical.  Although, IMHO, it’s always the team that makes or breaks a company, and its investors.  My most important slide would be #5.

Thoughts on Private Capital

There’s an interesting conversation looking at capital availability in private markets, the returns in VC and PE funds, and whether there’s a current asset inflation.  Peter Rip offers:

I think VC valuations have historically lagged and not led the public
markets valuations.  This is part of what creates the boom/bust cycle.
So I tend to believe the rise in IRRs is inflation due to excess money
supply.  Great for entrepreneurs.  Not so great for VCs.   Worse still
for LPs. Boom for some. Bust for others.  It corrects, over time.

And Fred cautions:

The Nasdaq is down 9% for the year.

Yet the venture capital market, particularly for web delivered services, is white hot. Valuations are up, amounts raised are up, fund formations are up. This can last for a while, but not forever.  Over long periods of time the venture capital market and the NASDAQ are highly correlated.

Over dinner Tuesday night, a friend who’s a very experienced investor in private markets, raised the question if private deals are now a truly viable alternative for mature businesses to raise capital.  It’s in line with the disintermediation of financial markets: why pay an investment bank 7% when you can call call up KKR and Bain Capital for a few billion dollars?

A side benefit would be for corporate governance.  With Sarbanes-Oxley, the cost of being public has increased significantly.  Also, a PE firm has the right incentives, unlike an investment bank, to kick the tires well before an investment.  The argument for public markets is that they create liquidity.  I think a viable model would involve the LPs to raise money from main street, turn around and invest in PE firms, who have real incentives for superior returns to the LPs.

UPDATE: Auren reports *14* unsolicited VC inquiries for Rapleaf in two weeks.  This goes to the point of entry price pressures for VCs.

Ooops! Have Things Started Sliding at Your Start-up?

Another list is up from Guy Kawasaki, this time dealing with scenarios of what typically goes wrong at venture-backed start-ups.  (Thanks, Tahir.) The take-away, for me, is:

I have never seen a company fail because it couldn’t expand fast
enough. I have seen many companies die because they “invested in the
future” and “spent ahead” to avoid missing an opportunity.

VCs in the Web2.0 Story

Umair has a sharp post about how he thinks the general VC community is missing the Web2.0 point and failing in its critical role in early stage value creation.

I think VCs are the new chasm because they are so scarred by the bubble, they’re scared of new concepts and new Big Ideas – they are paralyzed into trying to "monetize" yesterday’s stale, tired, old ideas. Yes, many venture guys have always been vultures – but a good portion were also fairly visionary. That fire in the belly is gone – the passion to disrupt and change things has disappeared.

Ultimately, this death of ideas, novelty, and renewal is why we end with the VCs thinking 2.0 is about technology; why we end up with the guys who should have an economic vision failing to create one; why we end up with a whole community of very smart guys, who, afraid to step outside their narrow comfort zone, are missing the obvious and enormous tectonic shifts rumbling through the economic landscape, where innovators outside are using the real 2.0 – markets, networks, communities – to disrupt new industries almost every week.

I think part of the issue is the Zero-Billion Dollar Fund phenomenon I’d blogged about.  Increasing capital markets efficiency, the proliferation of sophisticated angels, the appetite of large web companies to acquire early-stage companies, and Moore’s Law are combining to make the VC’s job more difficult.  Add to this the fact that the sector is still fairly young, with many funds still being run by the first generation of GPs.  Umair is being tough on the VC community, but I think he’s right.

TPG’s $14b New Baby

We keep hearing about the worldwide liquidity boom.  Then, you hear something so extraordinary that the size of this boom really sinks in.  This is one of those things:

Texas Pacific Group will this month tell investors it has raised more
than $14bn for its latest buy-out fund, the biggest single pool of
capital raised in global private equity.

That’s a lot of money to invest in a fund’s typical lifespan. 

Israel Envy

According to the IVC, Israel has:

4,563 High-Tech Companies, 166 VC Funds and 34 Incubators

Country PR aside, it’s serious that Israeli VC funds have raised $1.2 billion in 2005, and are projected to raise another $1b in 2006.  Therefore, it should not be surprising to see events like KinnerNet conference, pulling in about 150 thinkers and innovators to:

discuss topics and concepts that are of interest
to them,in fields such as Software development, internet culture, site
building, blogs, forums, social networks, chat rooms, instant messages,
P2P, search engines, web services, Wi-Fi, open source, Email,
Infrastructure services, Cellular services, Computer games, Interactive
T.V, VOIP, technological trends, Gadgets, Security and more,   to share
their thoughts , work-in-progress, show off the latest tech toys and
hardware hacks, and tackle challenging problems. together we will try
to figure where the internet is going and what are the prevailing
trends.

I am jealous as I read Mark, Tom and  Loic blog about it.  In contrast to the Israeli numbers, the Turkish VC raised in 2005 was $0.  In 2006, we expect it to be $0 again.  And, we will not have an event like this next year in Istanbul.

A few months ago, on a panel, Yigal Ehrlich had attributed Israel’s VC (and innovation) success to government action – resulting in Yozma.  As much as I hate looking towards the government (especially the Turkish government), I suspect early stage VC asset class can only be kick-started with a strong nod from the government.

Turkven Invests in Pronet

Pronet_tomb
Turkven, Turkey’s only independent private equity firm, announced its investment in Pronet on Monday.  The Turkven team and the CEO of Pronet are both friends.  To top it off, another friend, Aycan Avci advised Pronet on the deal. Pronet’s been an ideal candidate for PE for a while – enjoying rapid growth with a very visible cash stream.

This is Turkven’s sixth closing on its debut fund.  In a panel last week, Evren Unver mentioned that work’s about to begin on the second fund.

Sometimes, I feel like the entire deal scene in Turkey is rooting for the success of Turkven.  I am excited for them.

MIT – Sloan Visit to Istanbul

Ken Morse, the Managing Director of MIT Entrepreneurship Center, accompanied a group of Sloan Students to Turkey.  In Istanbul, they were hosted by the ARI Teknokent, the technopark project of the Istanbul Technical University.  I was invited to be a panelist yesterday in a panel discussion titled, "Istanbul: A Globally-Linked "Cool" Hub for Entrepreneurship?"  The panel was moderated by Memduh Karakullukcu, the General Manager of ARI Teknokent.  The other panelists were:

Aydin Ersoz – CEO of Innova, a leading Turkish enterprise software developer
Cemil Turun – CEO of Yogurt, an innovative software house with a focus on computer graphics
Evren Unver – General Partner at Turkven, Turkey’s only independent private equity fund

We took turns sharing with the audience our view and experiences in entrepreneurship in Turkey.  The summary of the discussion, along with the previous night’s dinner’s topics with Ken Morse, is that Turkey has inherited an entrepreneurial legacy, with Istanbul as the hub of commercial activity in the region for centuries, and right now, economic stabilization, lower interest rates, and the EU ascension plans combine to make Turkey a desirable target for capital.

The picture is fairly clear.  All stakeholders seem to agree on the main points.  Therefore, we should expect a big boom in entrepreneurial activity in Turkey, right?  🙂

We’ll see…

Two pieces of exciting news from yesterday were that Turkven has closed another deal, bringing their investments to five, and that Innova is contemplating a Turkish IPO.

VC Transparency

I have blogged about openness here before.  I find the lack of openness to be one of the obstacles hindering Turkish entrepreneurial development; and I have made it one of the principal tenets of the Istanbul New Economy Group.

Fred Wilson is an old acquaintance from New York.  His firm Union Square Ventures is my model for a modern web-based services VC. He and his partner Brad Burnham have been discussing how they use del.icio.us to sustain a dialog with the entrepreneur community.  In their specific case:

[Fred] was also inviting all of you to shape that thinking by tagging
things in del.icio.us using the tags for:fredwilson, for:ceonyc,
for:bburnham, or more simply and perhaps more efficiently, for:usv.

In Istanbul, there are many who disagree with me on the requirement for openness.  I wanted to point out the USV practice, and recognize it as the "big deal" that Brad calls it.  Venture Capital is an industry of idea-based competition.  One can argue that closely guarding ideas will lead to success.  USV is contending that sharing them will.  I agree with them.