Valuations

Yesterday, the Turkish government pulled off an impressive feat by auctioning off its controlling (51%) share of the refinery group, Tupras, for the unexpectedly high price of $4.14b, which implies a market capitalization of $8.11b.  The winner is the Koc-Shell consortium.  The auction’s high price was surprising, especially given that the company was sold last year, in a similar auction that was later canceled by the courts, for a quarter of this amount.  Not surprisingly, yesterday’s auction has been met with enthusiasm by the Istanbul Stock Exchange, Turkish business circles and the press, who have called Tupras Turkey’s "diamond".

What has had me thinking is that Tupras’s sale has coincided with two other pieces of M&A news that are closer to my industry:

1) eBay buying Skype for $2.6b
2) Oracle buying Siebel for $5.85b (both links from NYT; require free subscription)

Notice the figures?  2.6 plus 5.85 equals 8.45 which is greater than 8.11. in other words, the crown jewel of Turkish economy, a 75+ year company, selling for a market-shattering price in a highly-contested auction, is worth less than the combination of a 12 year-old software company and a 2-year old telecommunications company.

The implications are complex.  It makes me feel that I am here at the right time, but makes me wonder if I am at the right place.

Web Memory

I am noticing that del.icio.us has become much more than a social bookmarking utility for me.  I use it far less for searching or research, and more as a repository of my browsing experience.  It has become my web memory.

I now wish there were ways I could do the same (i.e. search, notice, relate, tag, recall) with my offline experiences.  In offline experiences, I notice that I try to accomplish this with conversations.  When I read an interesting article in the newspaper, I turn to an office-mate and comment about it.  The dialog then forces me to think a few steps further, add context to the topic, and as a result, I suspect, I can remember the topic better.  There is probably some neurological learning research that validates this notion.

With the current buzz about the mobile-phone-as-an-input-device issue, the ability to scan some text (or image, or record an audio file), tag, and store it in a searchable format (in, say, del.icio.us) would be a killer app.
 

MySpace goes to Mr. Murdoch

While I was away sailing the gorgeous waters of Gocek, MySpace, the media-darling Friendster-killer SNS (NY Times Free Registration required) got acquired by News Corp. for a nice $580m.  Congratulations to Redpoint Ventures, and especially Vantage Point, who’d come in earlier, for a nice exit.

Mark Pincus mentions reported revenues of around $9m.  If this is true, what really is the asset being sold?  I suspect it is the:

a) Trust
b) Attention, and
c) Future loyalty

of the MySpace users, 12-25 year-old music fans.  What a miss for MTV Networks…  Continuing good news for Craigslist, who enjoys an even broader audience, with the above 3 factors present.

I suspect music is a fairly universal connector.  Another I can think of is sports; soccer, to be precise.  Will there be a MySpace for sports?  Or, is MySpace the MySpace for sports?

First Day in Istanbul

My last few weeks in NY were hectic, as expected.  Hence, the infrequent blogging…

This is my first day back in Istanbul as a resident, despite the fact that I lack a residence, just yet.   This is a stop-over, as I continue on down to Southern Turkey, first for a sailing trip in Gocek, then 10 days near Bodrum.

Sail

The sense that I have moved from NY has not yet sunk in, as my current itinerary is very similar to a typical summer vacation I’d take to Turkey.  It should start feeling different when I start going to work on August 1st.

As I am now on vacation, there will still be few posts…

Healtheon

HlthDo you remember Healtheon?  It was the company founded by the legendary entrepreneur Jim Clark (his 3rd billion-dollar venture, after SGI and Netscape), with backing by the legendary VC John Doerr.  The idea and the company’s early stages were chronicled in the book The New New Thing by Michael Lewis.

Healtheon had an impressive promise:  the trillion-dollar diamond made famous in Lewis’s book.  The company would be situated in the middle of the busy intersection of patients, providers, pharmaceutical companies and insurance companies (payers).  It went public (HLTH).  The stock went over $100 in bubbly 1999.

Then what?  As a public company, in May 1999, it merged with the private medical content site WebMD, eventually takings its name.  Today it’s a medical information portal, with its stock price floating around $10.

Have you paid attention to your dealings in the healthcare sector lately?  Last week I received a bill for care that was provided over 3 months ago, which I had already paid.  Next time you are in your primary care physicians office, observe the office environment.  Take note of the stacks of files and paper.  Then, talk to your doctor about his practice costs.  We have not even gone into the litigation system in the HC industry…

To make a long story short, the sector is inefficient and burdened by excessive litigation, driving the costs to record increases.  HLTH had a good idea, but apparently the bubble busting and the industry’s resistance to transparency and efficiency, combined to marginalize the company into a content provider as opposed to a transaction enabler.

Too bad for all of us.  I am looking forward to see the next set of superstars to tackle this messy area.

E-Commerce and infrastructure

What are the factors that have contributed to the growth of e-commerce?  I think basic trust is an important one, followed closely with information security improvements (e.g. SSL).  However, one factor has long been in place before the internet: Payments and remittance infrastructure, beginning with the post office, banks and their money transfer mechanisms, credit cards and ending with PayPal.

eBay bought PayPal in 2002, for $1.5B.  At the time, they had already acquired Billpoint, but had failed to gain marketshare against PayPal.  in 2002, 25% of eBay transactions were settled using PayPal.  In 2000, the rate was almost zero.  Meg Whitman had commented back then that the target rate was over 60%.

I have not been able to find out what that rate currently is, but browsing eBay, it’s easy to see that it must be very high.

I wonder if the infrastructure for peer-to-peer payment systems would disappear overnight, what would happen.  Would volume on eBay decrease permanently?  Would nervous shoppers move to stronger-brand merchants like Amazon, from the unknown counterparts on eBay?

I suspect so…  So for the markets where the auction market is still immature, is the infrastructure still too undeveloped?  I think an opportunity is hidden in the infrastructure side.

Geography: Istanbul

As I previously suspected (and mentioned) my family’s decision to move to Istanbul is now firm.

This is very exciting for me.  First, some macro reasons:

– Turkish economy grew by almost 10% in 2004.  This historic rate follows two strong years of growth, at 8% and 6%.  Of course, before that was the horrible 2001 slump of -7.5%. These figures suggest that Turkey is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with a GNP of $300 billion ($4,200 per capita income) and a very large young population with relatively-high purchasing power ($7,700).What entrepreneur does not salivate over these figures.

– Turkey seems to have turned a corner regarding political stability. Ironically, my explanation for this is the large debt burden that the country is carrying ($162 billion in 2004). There’s a Turkish proverb: Debt whips the man into shape.  When a country’s future is mortgaged so heavily, even the most corrupt political establishment is forced into pragmatism.

Then, some personal reasons:

– I left Istanbul at the age of 17. At 33 now, I have spent my entire adult life in the US.  My wife’s figures are similar.  We now feel that we owe it to ourselves to experience life in Turkey.  The fact that our families also reside in Turkey amplifies this feeling of debt.

– Mark Pincus had a good post about leverage recently.  As an entrepreneur, I share his dilemma.  And Mark suggests three ways to create leverage as an entrepreneur.  When you cross these options with the universal "bigger fish in a smaller pond" truism, it becomes obvious that I, as an entrepreneur, can create more leverage in Istanbul, compared to New York.

I will continue to blog about my career options and decisions.

One last note, this blog post was typed at 31,000 feet, just past Cardiff, over the Atlantic Ocean on Lufthansa flight LH 400.  I love the new level of connectivity we are beginning to enjoy.

San Francisco

SfI am back in San Francisco, first time since 2003.  It is amazing how the city has developed over the last couple of years.  The urban revival template that one sees in many major cities around the world is also evident in San Francisco.  The newly renovated Ferry Building downtown is a nice example.  It reminded me of the Chelsea Market in NYC.

My good friend Kerim recently bought a new home in San Francisco.  Since I am currently selling our condo in NY, I am keenly observing the real estate situation.  There are some very scary signs of a bubble (e.g. your cab driver telling you about the investment properties he’s buying, ads in NY Times about real estate investment seminars, etc.)  Remember internet stocks in 2000 anyone?

At the same time, a home has a very different utility curve than Pets.com stock. To start, you can live in it.  You can borrow against it at government subsidized terms.  To counter, Kerim tells me that in the last 70 years, San Francisco real estate has returned an annual 8%, not including rental income.  That rate is also true for the last 10 years.

It will be interesting to see what happens as the interest rates go up.

Venture Capital Dead?

Howard Anderson, an elder statesman of the industry thinks so, in his MIT Technology Review article, which Brad Feld blogged about today.

Point by point, I would agree with every statement in his article.  However, I am not sure if those points add up to the death of the entire industry.  One of his points, the large sum of money looking for a destination, may be the reason why the industry survives.  Where else does all that money go?

The theme of the article is one of the reasons for my decision to move to Turkey.  I think the dynamics Anderson explains will increasingly make early-stage opportunities in developing markets attractive to investors world-wide.

The Gay Gene

There’s a good Op-Ed article (requires free NYT registration) in today’s New York Times, by Steven Pinker, the author of How the Mind Works and The Blank Slate, two of my favorite books.  He brings up an interesting point about natural selection.  If homosexuality is genetic, as it is being proven, how come it has not been selected out a long time ago?  The answer must lie in some other advantages inherent to homosexual animals.  Pinker points out a few possible answers, but leaves it there.

I am curious to see how the right-wing, religious, anti-science lobby will respond.  I find it appalling that in 2005, this is a discussion topic in the US.