The Danger of High-Valuation Series A Rounds

Tech startup valuations are exploding around the world.  As a result, we are seeing higher expectations from entrepreneurs here in Turkey and CEE rising, as well, with higher "asks" in seed and Series A rounds than ever before.  We find ourselves passing on opportunities we find interesting for valuation reasons, which is quite new for us.

This is not so much of a problem for seed rounds.  There are investors, mostly angels, who can live with more modest returns than a VC, so these startups do get to find funding and go to market.  However, I think it's a dangerous game to play in Series A, even if you are able to secure funding at lofty valuation.

Let's start with the reminder that, by our count, there have been only 7 Turkish internet startups that have reached the $100m valuation mark, and it took some of them more than a decade to get there.  You can do the math with the super high discount rate you should apply to a Series A stage venture, to come up with the range at which we would consider as Series A round.

How you value a Series A round is usually not based on financial metrics, but is an exercise around how much capital the company needs to get to its next set of major milestones, how big the founder team is, and what level of dilution is appropriate to make sure the team stays motivated.  As a result, almost all Series A rounds already overvalue a company, with the hope that rapid growth in a large market will allow the company to fill beneath this high valuation in time for Series B.  

What happens when this is not accomplished is the prospect of a down round.  Talking with founders, I find that most underestimate the difficulty of down rounds, which rarely happen, and when they do, are usually damaging to so many aspects of a company, that very few companies go on to become successful.

If you are a tech founder, please keep in mind that an overprices Series A round can create an existential risk for your startup.

 

 

 

How to Start a Startup

StanfordI came across a blog post today by Connor Murphy on the different approaches to fundraising for your startup.  It made me think of the vast amount of resources for tech entrepreneurs today, compared to 1999, when I started my startup journey.  I sometimes wonder whether the naivete, that was a result of how clueless I was about what it would be like to start a tech business, was a factor in my decision.

In any case, if you are a rookie tech founder, there's a ton of intelligence, advice and anecdotes available for you out there.  One of the better resources is YCombinator's Sam Altman's class at Stanford titled "How to Start a Startup".  He tapes his class sessions and posts them on Youtube.  I would highly recommend investing a few days in digesting his content.

Why Price Matters

Notice a pattern in my blog titles? 🙂

This is the age of TechCrunch and Business Insider.  Numbers with a lot of zeroes are sexy, so tech startups are sexy. Again.  The last link is not to be taken as a suggestion that I think there is a bubble.  I don't think there is.  Not like in 1999.  Topic for another post.

But, the high valuations and the amplification of tech media is whetting the appetites of entrepreneurs in our region, causing eventual disappointment on both sides of the table.

Our region has historically had difficulty creating large technology companies.  I am excluding Turkcell, etc., as I view them more as regulated utilities.  Turkey has not produced a single global technology success story, yet.  I think that is an anomaly and it will change, but so far, it's the reality.  The largest tech exit in Turkey was GittiGidiyor, at $220m.  We now have a handful of tech companies valued over $100m, and some of those will get to large exits at some point.

Entrepreneurs should understand that this is the framework we have to work within.  

Now, combine this fact with the expectation you'll see at every early-stage tech investor: at least a 10-20X return on her investment, if all goes well.  They expect this because their portfolio will need these 10-20Xs to deliver the promised returns to their investors.  That's how the math works.  Without these homeruns, the portfolio will deliver mediocre returns, at best.

This is the math you, the entrepreneur, should have in mind in your dialog with any investor in our geography.  Until we see $billion exits, we'll assume your company will be exit at much lower valuations, setting the stage for more modest valuations, compared to silicon valley stories you read about.

 

Why Deep Pockets Matter

Deep-pocketsWhen we set out to raise our early stage VC fund focused on Turkey and CEE in 2012, one decision we had to make was on fund size.  At that point, we decided that it would have to be a $100+ fund.  I want to share our thinking behind this.

There is already quite a bit of talk around Series B difficulties.  Mattermark's Danielle Morrill has looked at the numbers, and Redpoint's Tom Tunguz and Atlas's Fred Destin have chimed in with their well thought-out pieces.  We agree that the hurdle for Series B rounds is quite high for startups, as this is when companies start selling numbers and performance, rather than visions and dreams.

Please note, that the conversation so far is centered on developed markets, with many VC firms, mostly well-capitalized, evaluating the Series B opportunities.  Now, superimpose this situation on the market that our new Turkey and CEE fund is covering.  You'll see the same difficulties facing Series B seeking startups, compounded with the fact that the small number VC firms covering the region are mostly small, or not committed to investment shere.

Therefore, we decided that we'd have to have deep enough pockets to be able to underwrite the  fundraising needs of our portfolio companies and see them through maturity.  Of course, this assumes that they are performing – we would not put good money after bad money, but we feel comfortable that our successful portfolio companies will not be at the mercy of the funding climate or the appetite of potential investors.

This is reflected in the case of Metrekare.com.  Even though we invested at quite an early stage, the Metrekare.com team feels comfortable that they will have access to funding, as long as the company is progressing in the right direction.

Earlybird Istanbul is Looking for a Rockstar Assistant

Now that we are in investment mode at Earlybird's Istanbul office, we are seeking a superstar Executive Assistant to help us run the shop.

This is a key role that inherently provides a wide set of paths ahead.  

What will help you get the job:

–      Bachelor's Degree

–      Excellent use of both spoken and written English , German is a bonus

-       A few years of work experience in a similar position

-       Good command of business applications, both old and new

-       Strong negotiation, organizing and time management skills

-       Excellent interpersonal and professional communication skills

-       Able to effectively prioritize work and parallel process, show initiative when needed

-       Must possess the highest level of work ethics and integrity, with the ability to maintain confidential information

–       Flexibility and "get stuff done" attitude

-       Acute attention to accuracy, consistency and a high degree of quality in work

-       Have a polished appearance, dynamic personality and excellent attendance

-       Be detail oriented and organized

-       Hard-working, reliable and committed to delivering results

-       Careful and committed to continuous development

-       Strong follow-up skills

 

Job Description

-       Coordinates all internal and external meetings and travel arrangements

-       Plans and prepares materials for internal and external meetings, including scheduling and distribution of agendas and meeting materials

-       Proactively identifies and resolves executive needs

-       Responsible for visitor coordination

-       Passes along information and routine matters to appropriate parties for action and follows up to assure timely completion

-       Highly self-motivated and able to operate autonomously when necessary

Please contact us with a link to your LinkedIn profile, and an email on why you are interested in the role at Earlybird.Istanbul.HR@gmail.com.

 

 

Going East – The making of the Earlybird Digital East Fund

This is a guest blog by my partner Roland Manger. It was originally published on the Earlybird blog.

EDEF-team-e1390303571922VC firms aren´t really interesting, the companies they invest in are. That´s why only few people noticed how profoundly Earlybird has changed. When you looked at the partner profiles on our website five years ago, you saw a bunch of Germans with a heavy Germanic focus. Yes, we helped our companies to grow and expand globally, and yes, we listed them on international stock exchanges or helped them be acquired by large US and even Asian corporates. But in most cases, this was based on German, Austrian or Swiss teams only and we felt very comfortable with that.

I must say I am very happy that we left our comfort zone and started to look at the VC opportunity in Europe in a different way.

For a number of reasons that many smart people have reported about, Berlin has become a uniquely attractive place for some of the most brilliant founders from all over Europe, sometimes even beyond to conceive great new products and build globally active companies around them. So rather than remaining a German VC supporting German companies, Earlybird became a Berlin based VC with an international team (check out the website now) working with exceptional founders from all over Europe.

Taking a different look at our world also made us realize that just East of Berlin, in CEE and Turkey, we could find a new world of smart and ambitious entrepreneurs that was largely untapped by the established VC community. A lot of preconceived notions still dominate the views even of European VCs about the opportunity in Turkey and the European East, much like the ones that US VCs had and often still have about Western Europe.

But if you aren´t a chauvinist, you have to admit that entrepreneurial talent is distributed evenly around the world. As VCs we are looking for the most exceptional of entrepreneurs regardless of where we are active, those that defy conventional wisdom and are used to dealing with difficult challenges independently of the predominant cultural bias of their home country. In most of the places we looked at, technology education traded at a premium, so the best and brightest were and still are seeking engineering degrees at home and abroad. Examining the cross-section of both really got us excited. We found ways to meet tech entrepreneurs (most of them in the making) from Turkey, the Balkans and North Eastern Europe, looked at now over 1300 investment opportunities and felt reassured by what we saw.

With the new Earlybird Digital East Fund, we are putting money where our mouth is. Three partners joined me in this quest: Cem Sertoglu and Evren Ucok have been both the most prolific and successful early tech investors in Turkey. Dan Lupu has covered large parts of CEE for Intel Capital. Several large international institutional investors and a number of successful entrepreneurs and family investors from all over the world share our view and have committed capital to the fund. Now is the time to prove them and us right.

Scaling Startups Effectively

I am embarrassed at my blogging pace over the past few years.  However, when I come across a thought that I think deserves more permanence than Twitter, this blog is still where I turn to.

One of those items just came from my friend Saar Gur, who's a General Partner at CRV.  Saar's spent some time analyzing the growth factors in rapidly-growing startups and his thoughts are below.

I think the money slides are 19 and 20. We see so many startups comparing themselves to companies with very different economics underlying their businesses.  And, much capital gets wasted, chasing someone else's growth curve that is just not attainable for their business model.

The LTV/CAC analysis needs to be a top-down one, and one that gets iterated as a company moves down its own growth curve.  Any hasty conclusion is usually a costly one.

 

Hiring at Startups

StarIn my opinion, a startup founder has three primary jobs:

1. Develop and manage the company's vision
2. Form the right team to make that vision a reality
3. Make sure there's money in the bank

The most important of  these three is #2.  That makes hiring a critical task.  I was reading a recent Mark Suster post, and found myself re-reading a section, that effectively summarizes how a founder should approach hiring:

“Join our company because we’re doing exciting things. 

Join because you’re going to get more responsibility at a young age than you would a bigger company. Join because we’re a meritocracy and promote success not tenure.

Join because every year at the end of the year you can say that your resume is significantly better than it was the year before. Join because as we continue our successes we will have more resources to reward you with and reward we will.

But don’t join if you’re looking for a get-rick-quick scheme. We’re not that company. We pay less than you could earn at other companies. We have to. 

All I ask is to earn your employment every year. If at the end of each year you haven’t grown in skills and stature, if at the end of the year you don’t feel like you’re still enjoying the journey, if at the end of the year you don’t think your resume is going to look better at the end of next year 

… then it is time to leave. I’m going to work hard to make sure you never have to.

and if money comes through options at the end of our journey that’s icing on the cake.”

The post is actually on another interesting topic, but I wanted to pick this section out.

 

Yatırım Yaptığımız Girişimci Profili

DiveAktif bir
teknoloji yatırımcısı olarak, sık sık, ileride başarılı bir girişimci olmak
için nasıl bir yol izlenmesinin daha iyi olacağı konusunda sorular
alıyorum.  Tabii girişimcilikte tek bir
doğru yol ya da yöntem yok.  Ancak bu
konuya veri tabanlı bir yaklaşım getirebilmek için, bugüne kadar yatırım
yaptığımız 14 şirketin kurucularının, biz yatırım yaptığımız noktaya kadar
nasıl bir yol izlediklerine bakmak istedim. 
Ortaya şöyle bir resim çıktı:

Biz yatırım
yaptığımız noktada, kurucuların ortalama yaşı 32ymis.  En genci 23 en yaşlısı 39 yaşındaymış.  Yine ayni noktada, ortalama iş tecrübeleri
7.7 yılmış.  Yaş ve tecrübe verilerinin
bana düşündürdüğü, yatırım yaptığımız girişim hikayelerinin, kurucuların
geçmiş tecrübelerinde gördükleri eksik ya da sorunlara cevap olarak
geliştirdikleri çözümler olduğu.

Kurucuların
%63ünün eğitimi teknik/mühendislik alanlarında, ve %54’ü en az bir derecesini
ülkesi dışında almış. Tabii bizim sadece teknoloji alanında yatırım yaptığımızı
düşünürseniz şaşırtıcı değil. 
Kuruculardan yarısının en az bir lisansüstü derecesi var ve %42’si MBA
derecesine sahip.

Son olarak, en sık
gördüğümüz okul Boğaziçi Üniversitesi.  Yatırım
yaptığımız şirketlerin kurucularının %21’i Boğaziçi mezunu. Gördüğümüz diğer
okullar da, ITÜ, Stanford gibi, akademik olarak çok güçlü okullar.

Bu kısa analizde karşımıza
en net çıkan resim, yatırım kararı verirken, girişimcilerde, istikrarlı
bir başarı tablosu görmek istediğimiz oldu. 
Girişimciliğe giden yol tek değil, ama yola çıkan kurucuların,
geçmişlerinde önlerine koydukları hedeflere ulaşmayı becermiş olmaları,
yatırım kararında önemli bir faktör oluyor sanırım.

Investing in Turkey’s Digital Economy

Last week I was invited to pen an article for CNBC's "Investing In:" series. Naturally my area is technology venture capital. The article is below.  You can view the original here.

Big Opportunities in Turkey’s Digital Economy

Turkey as a favorable investment destination has been a
popular topic in the investment community this year. By now, the pillars of the
Turkish investment thesis are well understood by investors, so there is
probably no need to rehash these except to note briefly:

  • High-growth, dynamic and stable economy
  • Young, growing population
  • Strategic geography with access to key markets
  • Structural reforms

However, if our goal is to identify the most attractive
investment path in Turkey, the information and communications technology (ICT)
sector is probably the foremost candidate.

According to the prime minister's office, the sector’s
growth is outpacing GDP growth significantly, with a compound annual growth
rate of almost 15 percent over the last decade. The size of the sector,
estimated at about $29 billion by Deloitte, is still significantly below the EU
average, pointing to a nice upside.

The sector is still dominated by the telecommunications
industry in terms of revenue. However, the driver of growth will probably be
the result of an offline-to-online migration in multiple sectors, similar to what
has been experienced in the United States and the European Union.

A dramatic characteristic of the Turkish market is how
connected it is. The Turkish Investment Agency estimates 50 million Internet
users. With 32 million users, Turkey ranks as the seventh country on Facebook.
The aggregate attention on digital media is immense.

However, this is in deep contrast to the commercialization
of this connected community. My firm estimates the number of people who have
ever completed a commercial transaction online in Turkey is around 5 million, a
mere 10 percent of the Internet users.

Therefore, one of the key explosions will be in e-commerce.
We have started seeing the first signs of this with extreme-growth e-commerce
startups like Trendyol, Markafoni and Grupanya, which already have millions of
dollars in monthly revenues. Bolstered by a very strong payments system (51
million credit card holders according to the Turkish Interbank Card Center) and
an effective logistics infrastructure, the wave of pure online e-commerce
companies and e-commerce arms of brick and mortar players are here.

Another key area to grow is digital content. Historically,
content has been tough to monetize effectively in Turkey. However, we are
starting to see improvements, through micro payment service providers and
effective ad networks.

One sparkling example is Peak Games, a Turkish social gaming
company that claims nearly 10 million daily active users, making it the
third-largest social gaming platform in the world. The growing Turkish sphere
of influence in the region will enable other digital content companies to grow
rapidly and play their part in the rising digital economy.

Finally, I should note the most critical underpinning of
this bullish outlook: the talent base to drive this growth. Here there are two
factors: The strong technical education system of the country, and the reverse
brain-drain that has begun shifting top-tier talent back from the U.S. and
Europe.

According to the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, Turkey
ranks above Poland, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria in the availability of
qualified engineers. The increasingly vibrant ICT environment in the country
has started to attract back the best and the brightest Turkish technical talent
from graduate programs and top technology companies abroad.

Last year saw the first major exit of a Turkish technology
startup to a global strategic buyer, when eBay acquired GittiGidiyor, the
leading Turkish e-commerce platform, which was followed by Naspers’ acquisition
of Markafoni.

This year, global sports digital media company Perform has
acquired Mackolik, a local sports content portal. In the years to come, we
should see increasing amount of global investment attention to the Turkish ICT
market.

——————————-

Cem Sertoglu is a partner at Earlybird Venture Capital in
Istanbul. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Texas
at Austin.

Disclosure: Sertoglu is a current investor in Grupanya and a
former investor in GittiGidiyor. Earlybird’s 2007 fund invests in Peak Games.